教育部人文社科重点研究基地中央财经大学中国精算研究院学术活动

精算论坛第217期讲座

(2022年12月9日上午9:00-11:30)

讲座主题1：Too Risky to Hedge : An Experiment on Narrow Framing

摘要： Narrow framers who focus on specific investment decisions without considering preexisting risks would underestimate the value of hedging. We test this in a lab experiment by eliciting subjects' willingness to pay for a set of lotteries which could be either a pure risky investment or full insurance against their endowed risk. Consistent with theoretical predictions, we find that subjects who are more willing to invest are also more willing to insure and that subjects insure significantly less in the loss domain than in the gain domain. These observations can only jointly be explained by prospect theory combined with narrow framing. Finally, we estimate the individual heterogeneity in narrow framing -- the distribution is skewed at two extremes but also with a substantial share of people in the middle. Neglecting this distribution, we would overestimate the severity of narrow framing.

报告人：郑家昆

郑家昆，法国图卢兹经济学博士，牛津大学纳菲尔德学院青年访问学者，国家优秀自费留学生奖学金获得者，现任中国人民大学财政金融学院助理教授、中国人民大学杰出青年学者、风险与公共物品研究中心(Center for Research on Uncertainty and Commons)联合创始人。主要研究兴趣包括行为经济学和决策理论及其在保险、资产定价、环境和健康领域中的应用，相关研究成果发表在Journal of Health Economics, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organisation, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics等国际高水平期刊上。

讲座主题2：Earthquake Parametric Insurance with Bayesian Spatial Quantile Regression

摘要：With its transparent and fast claims payment, parametric insurance has been widely used to insure nature-related risks such as earthquakes, floods, and hurricanes. In 2014, earthquake parametric insurance was introduced to provide coverage for earthquake losses occurred in Yunnan Province of China. However, as a main limitation of parametric insurance, basis risk is inevitable. In thistalk, a Bayesian spatial quantile regression model is proposed to reduce the basis risk of earthquake parametric insurance. The effect of earthquake hazard, risk exposure, and vulnerability on economic loss are analyzed and considered in the quantile regression model. Since risk exposure and vulnerability at the epicenter cannot be observed, they will be treated as latent variables in the quantile regression model. Bayesian approaches are applied, and spatial correlation is considered to construct the prior distributions for the latent variables. Earthquake losses in Yunnan Province from 1992 to 2019 are collected and analyzed by the proposed model and methods. The payment mechanism and the corresponding premiums of 16 regions in Yunnan Province are then calculated. The results show that the loss ratio is more reasonable than the current earthquake insurance, and the basis risk is then reduced.

报告人：李云仙

李云仙，毕业于香港中文大学统计学专业，获博士学位，现为云南财经大学金融学院教授、博导。入选云南省中青年学术技术带头人后备人才，受聘为中国现场统计研究会风险管理与精算分会常务理事、云南省应用统计学会理事、云南省保险学会专家（智囊团）成员。南方科技大学、加拿大曼尼托巴大学访问学者，长期从事巨灾风险管理、贝叶斯统计推断等方面的研究，在国内外知名期刊，如JMV,IME,EM等发表论文近30篇，主持完成一项国家社科基金项目和一项省社科项目，主持在研一项国家自科基金项目和一项省重点研发项目（子课题），出版专著2部，获云南省哲学社科优秀成果奖二等奖、三等奖各一项。

讲座主题3：中国式现代化：保险的使命与未来

摘要：党的二十大报告指出，从现在起中国共产党的中心任务是团结带领全国各族人民全面建成社会主义现代化强国、实现第二个百年奋斗目标，以中国式现代化全面推进中华民族伟大复兴。结合中国式现代化的内涵与特征，本报告将从养老保险、可持续保险、高质量保险、绿色保险、保险参与全球治理等角度阐述保险的使命，并对我国保险业的发展趋势作出展望。

报告人：赵正堂

赵正堂，厦门大学经济学院金融系副教授、副主任，经济学（金融学）博士，英国卡迪夫大学博士后，全国保险专业学位研究生教育指导委员会委员，中国保险学会理事，福建省经济学会常务理事，厦门地方金融学会会员，厦门医疗保险学会会员。

赵教授已在《财政研究》、《厦门大学学报》（哲社版）、《中国银行保险报》、《法制晚报》等刊物上发表论文30多篇，出版专著2部，主持国家社科后期资助基金项目、福建省社会科学规划项目、中国保险学会资助项目、福建省教育厅社会科学研究项目等。近两年为保险公司、银行、政府部门等相关单位开设讲座80多场。

讲座时间：2022年12月9日上午9:00-11:30

报告地点：腾讯会议（会议号：200-366-309）

邀请人：池义春

欢迎各位老师和同学积极参加！