教育部人文社科重点研究基地中央财经大学中国精算研究院学术活动

精算论坛第223期讲座

(2023年6月19日)

报告题目一：Procrastinated Participation in Social Insurance Expansion: Evidence from China’s New Rural Pension Scheme

摘要：This paper documents the long-term dynamic participation into the New Rural Pension Scheme (NRPS) in China, which has been expanded to nearly universal coverage. Although the NRPS is highly subsidized and strongly promoted by Chinese government, a large proportion of residents procrastinate in participation. Exploiting the 60-year-old age discontinuity in the NRPS benefit structure, this paper examines the effect of the NRPS policy design on participation behaviors and shows that, cash transfer provides strong participation incentivization. The within- and outside-village channels of government promotion, respectively, are associated with less procrastination behaviors, while an offsetting effect occurs when both channels exist. These findings demonstrate behavioral nature of the procrastinated participation in the NRPS and highlight the importance of paternalistic policy design and promotion, while alerting to a possible side effect of paternalism that an efficiency loss occurs in intensive persuasion by the strong government.

报告人：祝伟

祝伟，对外经济贸易大学保险学院，教授，博士生导师，管理学博士。他的研究领域包括行为保险、风险与不确定性经济学、家庭风险管理的理论与实证分析。他在《Journal of Risk and Insurance》、《Journal of Banking and Finance》、《Geneva Risk and Insurance Review》、《ASTIN Bulletin》、《North American Actuarial Journal》、《European Journal of Operational Research》、《Economics Letters》、《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《保险研究》等期刊上发表论文二十余篇。他主持国家自科、国家社科、教育部人文社科和北京市社科基金等多项课题。他毕业于中国矿业大学管理学院，曾在清华大学经济管理学院应用经济学博士后流动站从事风险管理与保险方向的研究。

报告题目二：Optimal consumption and annuity equivalent wealth with mortality model uncertainty

摘要：The classical Yaari (1965) lifecycle model (LCM) lies at the very heart of much modern retirement research, particularly that related to the economic understanding of annuity demand. The LCM predicts a high annuity demand among individuals facing retirement, yet it is rarely the case in reality. Such a disconnection between economic theory and practice, widely known as the annuity puzzle, has spurred intensified research attempting to demystify the economic and psychological underpinnings.

In this paper, we attempt to examine the cause of low annuity demand through the angle of mortality model uncertainty. To this end, we advance Yaari's LCM via incorporating with a mortality perturbation analysis. We obtain the optimal robust consumption rule and the annuity equivalent wealth. We find that investors may understate the incremental utility gained by annuitization if mortality model uncertainty is disregarded.

报告人：沈洋

沈洋，新南威尔士大学（UNSW）风险与精算系副教授。当前主要研究兴趣包括最优退休规划、长寿和健康风险建模定价及管理、动态合约理论及其在保险中的应用，已在精算、金融数学、随机控制、运筹学等相关领域发表60余篇论文，谷歌学术引用量1400+次。沈洋博士的研究获得澳大利亚和加拿大政府研究基金，以及北美寿险和产险精算师协会，澳大利亚某养老基金等行业资金资助，累计资助金额120+万澳元。

报告题目三：Uncovering correlation sensitivity in decision making under risk

摘要：We study experimentally correlation sensitivity in decision making under risk. We show that decision makers, within a general framework of correlation-sensitive preferences, can be classified into three categories based on their sensitivity to within-state payoff differences: increasingly or decreasingly sensitive, or correlation insensitive. We propose a novel experimental task that allows to classify experimental subjects according to this categorization. In a series of experiments, we find that aggregate choices display moderate decreasing sensitivity to within-state payoff differences, thereby rejecting the opposite counterpart imposed in regret and salience theory. Individual level analysis suggests that the aggregate findings are driven by a minority who consistently exhibit this behavior even when it violates first-order stochastic dominance. Finally, we disentangle between correlation sensitivity due to deliberate within-state comparisons and incidental payoff comparisons due to the framing of decision problems, and find that both channels produce correlation sensitivity, with deliberate comparisons being somewhat more important.

报告人：郑家昆

郑家昆，博士毕业于图卢兹经济学院，牛津大学纳菲尔德学院青年访问学者，曾获得国家优秀留学生奖学金，现任中国人民大学财政金融学院助理教授、中国人民大学杰出青年学者，风险与公共物品研究中心(Center for Research on Uncertainty and Commons, CRUC)联合创始人。他的研究兴趣包括行为经济学和决策理论及其在保险、金融、环境和健康领域中的应用。他近期在这些领域的研究发表在Journal of Health Economics, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, Insurance: Mathematics and Economics等。

讲座时间：2023年6月19日（周一）上午9：30-12:00

报告地点：中央财经大学沙河校区二教111

邀 请 人：池义春、郑敏