教育部人文社科重点研究基地中央财经大学中国精算研究院学术活动

精算论坛第245期讲座

(2024年5月29日9:30-11:30)

主题：Household Saving, Financial Constraints, and the Current Account in China

摘要：

In this paper, we present a model economy that can account for the changes in the current account balance in China since the early 2000s. Our results suggest that the increase in the household saving rate and tighter financial constraints facing the firms played equally important roles in the increase in the current account surplus until 2008. We argue that inadequate insurance through government programs for the elderly and the decline in family insurance due to the one-child policy led to the increase in the household saving rate especially after 2000 as more and more families with only one child entered the economy. The increase in the saving rate coupled with the financial frictions preventing the increased household saving from being invested in domestic firms resulted in large current account surpluses until 2008. Our results also indicate that the decline in the current account surplus since 2008 was likely to be due to the relaxation of financial constraints facing domestic firms, which was a result of the large scale fiscal stimulus plan launched by the Chinese government after 2008. These findings imply that the planned increases in China’s public pension coverage are likely to reduce the future current account balances. On the other hand, if financial constraints are tightened back to the pre-stimulus levels; the current account surplus may rise again.

报告人：Zhao Kai (赵开)

赵开博士，现任美国康涅狄格大学经济系终身教授、博士生导师，China & World Economy副主编。曾担任美联储访问经济学家，以及北京大学、中国人民大学、美国南加利福尼亚大学等多所高校访问教授。主要研究领域包括宏观经济学、财政政策及中国宏观经济。目前已在《货币经济学》（Journal of Monetary Economics）、《国际经济评论》（International Economic Review）、《动态经济学评论》（Review of Economic Dynamics）和《欧洲经济评论》（European Economic Review）等国际学术期刊发表论文10余篇。

讲座时间：2024年5月29日（周三）9:30-11:30

报告地点：沙河校区 学院13号楼325

邀 请 人：廖朴